Anticipation avoids disruptions


"No problem can be solved from the same level of consciousness that created it."  Albert Einstein

That’s why long-term projections with risk assessement are revealing but extrapolations are not !

Central in policy is the ever-relevant question: Which development deserves support, which technology should be deployed, for what purpose, where, when, how fast, and to what extent?

Reinforcing a society with a future worth defending it.

Europe's ability to solve problems, to invent, supported by EU funding, will achieve the EU objectives. The proposed innovations are a versatile tool that - after further development - could be conclusive.

This webpage is dedicated to solution-oriented arguments:

As an engineer, I believe that conversion are at the very heart of the flourishing of agile civilizations.

My motto has always been quality which results in requirements as reliability and optimal effectiveness.





1. The right Means, Methods for the right Purpose, Problem.
§.1.1. New reference There will be more opportunities for optimisation when Seanergy.be becomes an energy pillar.
Means Seanergy.be = a fleet of WECs for the open ocean and a factory ship.
Purposes Delivering green hydrogen and hydrocarbons produced aboard with C from carbon capture.
Ecological
Benefits of
Seanergy.be
The following mitigating gains might be claimed with our innovations:
  1. Handles for CO2 avoidance:
    • minimal use of scarce raw materials through diversification of power & material sources;
    • avoids risk of disruption of environment & local communities due to uncontrolled mining;
  2. Handles for CO2 reduction:
    • flexibility & security of fuel supply for thermal intensive industries & heavy logistics;
    • preserve land for horticulture or for desalination, but bans PV panels to non-bioproductive surfaces.
Economical
Benefits of
Seanergy.be
The following objectives can be attained with our innovations:
  1. Improve congruency with fluctuating demand:
    • the WEC is always productive unless the stored Hydrogen is tapped;
    • the delivery by the factory ship is intermittent like an LNG tanker;
    • no or less need to install overcapacity of the power generation by fossil fuels.
  2. Costspread of transition for economy & export:
    • H2 is renewable energy for electricity generation meeting demand in both scale and time;
    • adds flexibility and security of fuel supply for thermal intensive industries and heavy logistics;
    • the synthetic HCs are circular and customable high value molecules for green chemistry;
    • enables decarbonisation for the production of fertilizers, cement, bricks and glass;
    • a faster transition to circular economy by supplying the recovery sector with cheap energy.
§.1.2. Define criteria Our civilisation has the insight en the means for appropriate action.
In a nutshell Climate is applied thermodynamics and fluid-mechanics: every action has impact on the state of that system. The change will continue even without GHG. The task is to master the magnitude and direction.
  • Thermal inertia and the redistribution of energy and matter by wind, rain, erosion and rivers, ocean waves & currents, absorption and reflection of sunlight by clouds, vapor, dust, vegetation, surfaces, changes of composition, and the eruptions above and under sealevel.
  • Biological processes are superimposed on it and even drive some of them. Population growth and changing earth's surface due to habitation and related activities.
Ranking
Sustainability
To mitigate global warming, the world is shifting from consuming of Earth's natural buffer of solar energy (fossil fuels if no other genesis) to direct and derived use of solar energy.

The definition and thus objective of sustainability is imperative and inescapable.
"Maintaining or bringing Earth's production capacity and habitat and living aspects to a desired level".

Ranking energy sources according to their influence on the value of the different parameters of natural cycles, is one of the step in feeding an accoutrements for mastering Earth's productivity. Second step is building a model that incorporatie the complete interactivity and complex feedback mechanism.

§.1.3. Trade & Jobs Preparing the Future is Now – Add Participation from our Innovations.
Favourable
Side Effects
The place of Hydrogen and synthetic hydrocarbons in a circular economy with Seanergy.be
  • Hydrogen for cheaper recycling of various raw materials from waste or old devices;
  • Quality molecules from carbon capture & synthesis with H2 will become an earning model;
  • Circular fuels in hybrid or heat intensive applications or aviation will reduce carbon taxes;
  • Reuse avoids the CO₂ emissions from demolition, extra mining and the repurposing of waste;
Opportunities
for Export &
Engineering &
a lot of Jobs
It is possible to re-focus existing industrial sectors to attractive businesses: this is the way forward:
  • The maritime sector and shipbuilding will be revitalised, through new knowledge and skills;
  • Modifying refining processes to synthesise high-value hydrocarbons for green chemistry;
Supply of H2 to heat-intensive industries for use in chemical / plastics / medical applications:
  • Blast furnaces and cement plants embrace abundant cheap renewable energy sources;
  • Production of mineral fertilisers needs a lot of energy, but boost local food production.
  • Gas turbine design moves to H₂ combustion and use of several gaseous energy carriers.
Gas turbines have high reliability, long life and short start-up times, and can be equipped with CC.

From the moment of fossil-free H₂ is available the gain is DOUBLE for grid balancing.

The benefits from Seanergy.be: Captured carbon is regenerated into simple fuels with truly green hydrogen – synthesized either on board or near the power plant.

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2. There is not the 'deus ex machina'
§.2.1. Fragility Sustainable and long-term autonomy needs a risk assessment of dependencies + vulnerabilities.
Identification The fragility of a system - defined as the degree of damage or loss of functionality - depends more on its intrinsic properties than on the mode of disruption. Vulnerability is the unisolated exposure to hazards.
Vulnerability Vulnerability is the lack of preventive measures against events not considered in the project brief, whereas risk management is part of a specification and is assessed in terms of all thinkable external/internal manners of hazard occurrence, probability and severity of each reason (cause) at every point. At operational level, not only the ease of inflicting damage but also the impact, mitigation potential, and recovery time must be assessed.
Abundant or Redundant Within system engineering it is recognize that overreliance on a single source risks systemic failure, while (re)source abundance cannot replace redundancy in resilient energy systems, nor can duplication provide the same protection level.
  1. Resilience and Diversification::
    • Built-in alternative conversion chains leads to higher operational agility and security.
    • True redundancy means deploying multiple systems based on distinct physical principles.
  2. Hybrid Approach as a Transitional Bridge:
    • A hybrid approach helps to temper the peak and spread over time the emissions caused by additional demolition, recycling and reconstruction of the mid-transition, while all the time biomass acts as a carbon sink.
    • Diversity of energy sources reduces dependency, facilitates the phasing out of fossil fuels and increases energy security.
  3. Energy Security & Innovation:

While both solar and wind energy depends on atmospheric conditions, our WEC - Sea-wiggle.R - relies on waves wherever !

Combining renewable sources with storage solutions (such as batteries) ensures continuity of supply, nonetheless our - R.E-expande.R - is a better choice as a high-density buffer with a long service life without energy loss and direct conversion to AC at the desired voltage!

Scale & Scope Lack of appropriate scale of diversity was always the reason of decline of civilisations.

Harnessing the ocean with Seanergy.be could keep availability on demand level.

Biomass as carbon sink is excelent however applying CC with H₂ from our Sea-wiggle.R replace f-fuels.

"It is difficult to stop a family of elephants, impossible to stop a swarm of grasshoppers."

§.2.2. No blind spots Europe and Belgium have the courage to implement the consequences of vulnerability analysis.
Assessment of
Resilience
The probability that a system (liquid, gaseous, solid) - undergoing a disruption - maintains his functionality correlates with the number of nodes with comparable capacity. An approach is to map the tolerance of applications or services regarding disruptions of some extent that can occure. The second issue is how to secure vital services.
  1. In terms of kinds of threats, failure modes, frequency (depend on seriousness;
  2. In terms of prevention, mitigation, bypass possibilities, requirements;
  3. In terms of '(swich-) time to restat the (redundant) service', availability of parts;
  4. In terms of prohibitively cost, non-recoverable or non-replacable losses.
For example, emergency interventions have no time to recharge during action. Army vehicles deployed in remote area's or hostile environments. Hostipals have fuel-based generators.

Or fossil-fuels will be reserved for certain vital or heavy applications; Or our synthetic fuels take it over.

About Trade-off
Near Coast or
the Open Ocean.
While near off-shore installations are vulnerable due to fixed infrastructure and long cable trajects, free-floating mitigate these risks – though piracy remains a manageable threat with proper deterrents. While decentralized free-floating WEC has a significant advantage in evading to human-induced destruction, the factory ship presents a notable drawback.

Without additional data, assessing the sensitivity of this system remains a guess.

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3. Avoidance pending successive measures.
§.3.1. Efficiency Go for highest efficiency in technical matters. Go for highest GHG reduction in human matters.
About Trade-off
Comfort or Food
Will in a far future mankind be forced to choose between technical return and biomass yield ?
  • Although mankind energy demand is a fraction of the solar energy, we must remain vigilant. The impact of large-scale energy harvesting on natural cycles remains unknown. Mastering these interactions will present itself again in the coming decades.
  • Unlike solar and wind energy, ocean tidal / wave energy integrates a component derived from planetary interactions forces and Earth's rotation. This makes them inherently more sustainable, without disrupting balances in ecosystems on a critical scale.

Our integral approach of wave energy direct to H2 and followed by a conversion to HC - offers a long lasting energy autonomy.

Our autonomous floating installations produce continously but periodic navigation adjustments consumes energy.

Relativity
Therapy
Since mid 2020 I started to write down the technical concept, while not yet well informed what evolution the world was undergoing.
  • Avoidance is reduction or not at all.  Or, preparation of a sequence of mitigation measures.
    • The IPCC's mitigation pathways highlight strategies, such as prioritizing renewable energy, reducing energy demand, and implementing carbon dioxide removal.
    • The UNFCCC also outlines mitigation approaches, including transitioning away from fossil fuels, improving energy efficiency, and adopting sustainable agricultural practices
    • The EU Adaptation Strategy aims to make adaptation smarter, swifter, and more systemic while stepping up international action

Our proposal for truly green hydrogen for renewable fuels connect with the IPCC strategies;

Our proposal for using carbon from carbon dioxide removal plug in with IPCC and UNFCCC strategies;

Our proposal for using synthese for green chemistry and fertilizers support the UNFCCC strategy;

Here you will find a lot of congruence for land, air and sea with the EU Adaptation Strategy, which aims for smarter, systemic and international action.

§.3.2. Allocation Everything is traceable to energy.  Owing the energy, is owing the power.
Dysfunctions if
emergency vehicules
will be not hybrid
What if a traffic jam occurs ?  In winter a tunnel / on a mountain way blocked by an accident during the evening rush hour or a holiday exodus.  Policy may not run away from public concerns and that happens regulary.
  • Hydride cars can be quickly supplied with a few litres of e-fuel;
  • While recharging tens to hundreds of cars is virtually impossible.

Unless a new road assistance car will be developped with an energy buffer based on our proposal.

Sell clean tech
& Buy worldwide
carbon from CC !
The electrification of Europe will slow down but not stop global warming as expanding infrastucture worldwide happens mostly using f-fuels.

Install carbon capture units worldwide at points of emission, regenerate it into e-fuels, and sell it to power heavy machinery.

  • This integral approach enable by the hydrogen from - OCeanspHide.R - convert these amount of C to liquid e-fuels;
  • Liquids have high energy density, storage and distribution is according local needs.

A business model could be: to give lease  and manage CC-units at industrial emission points, and deliver the carbon to Seanergy.be !

Hybrid option in
mid-transition
could be greener
Shortage of rare materials could force us to choose between:

Concentrating full electrification, OR Wide repartition with mild-hybrid mobility !

  1. Concentration results in: x % plug-in e-cars and (1-x) % cars on f-fuel.
  2. Repartition results in: 100 % hybrid cars for y % km on battery and (1-y) % km on e-fuel.
    • A Wankel motor is compact and has a high energy density, intermittend use is excelent;
    • Recover of kinetic energy is the same as for plug-ins;
    • Recover heat to warm up the cabin and to keep / to set the battery at operating temperature.
    • Both engines will work in there optimal efficiency;
    • Save on non-abundant minerals as smaller batteries will do;
  3. Hybrid mobility will promote smart grid in synergy with domestic solar panels plus storage !
    • If daytime charging is sufficient, the home battery will be used for home appliances and reloading the car;
    • If daytime charging is not-sufficient + in the case of central power failure, the car can provide lighting !
    • With hybrid cars, there is no risk of being unable to get to work in the morning (shift);
    • Without hybrid mobility, the required central power generation capacity cannot be significantly lower.
§.3.3. Eco-nonsense Sometimes a climate decision is like calculating the Net Present Value.
Do not buy an
A-label freezer
An A-labeled household refrigerator acts as a heat pump, extracting the heat from the cold room and releasing it to the kitchen. The ecological footprint of the thicker insulation does not compensate because the heat emitted by a refigerator with B of C label, adds to the domestic heating system. Balance ?
Do not be afraid
of being a jester.
(DU: Hofnar)
We must be aware that the climate impact of the ongoing wars with demolition and reconstruction to come.

Peace in democratic diversity is also climate friendly!

Use as many Lithium as you can, but no more than the limit you own. Above that, their is no trade if demand does not end, there will be chains we forge ourselves.

"In der Beschränkung zeigt sich erst der Meister." (1802 Goethe)

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4. Ranking solutions by their enthalpy contribution.
§.4.1. Holistic logic CAUSE & EFFECT:  Everything connects to everything (Leonardo Da Vinci).
Objectives & Priorities The necessary measures are being implemented. The fact that the tipping point of the ecosystem is approaching, urges the finding of solutions that demonstrate GHG reduction over the life cycle of a device, service, process.
  1. The LCA methodology is a powerful tool for improving these issues:
    • LCA measures environmental impact and has two components: static and dynamic, viewed from the point of use or the upstream and downstream processes;
    • In orde to be beneficial, the dynamic contribution of a new technology must be greater than the (static plus dynamic) old technology plus the (static) new technology;
  2. But, Nature does not care where and how CO2 emissions / pollution are generated:
    • Nature includes the modified effects of all adjacent or branched processes;
    • Nature also includes repercutions of social dynamics induced by that switch.
Reference: Earth's heat balance.

For overarching policy strategies, it could be destressing to divide the complexity of all kinds of influences into two measures ? I reflect on HEATT and on HEART which are complementary to the LCA. NOTE: These are nice ideas - but the complexity of an implementation is beyond my skills - on the other hand being aware already promotes holistic thinking.

Mind a
HEATT-gauge
Each transition path that changes the thermodynamic state(s) - has its own enthalpy and entropy signature. This indicator aims to reflect indirect changes in the subject chain:
"Holistic Emission Adjacent Technology and Transport".

A HEATT-gauge could comprise:

  1. The qualification / proportional quantification induced by a particular change:
    • in adjacent upstream and downstream processes that enable and support the materialisation, operation and maintenance;
    • embedded are the power and material consumption for mining, refining, demolition, recycling, rebuilding, etc.;
    • attention could be payed to a contribution related to the protection and recovery of utilities;

The relevance of HEATT is to highlight the profound implications for the use of materials and energy in the determination of the scope and the phasing of the transition. The relativity is that the relevance is inversely related to the penetration of electrification and to fossil/renewable fuel mix.

Mind a
HEART-gauge
Each transition path that changes the infrastructure and the city design has its own social dynamic signature. This indicator aims to put hidden effects in evidence:
"Holistic Emission Associatable Repercussions of the Transition".

A HEART-gauge could comprise:

  1. The density of urban design correlates with:
    • acoustic, visual, spacial stress;
    • social cohesion and behaviour;
    • statistical average productivity;
    • rates of destructive choices;
  2. Suboptimalisation has its repercusions:
    • higher need for infrastucture and mobility due to intervention;
    • occupating a lot of people in prevention & rehabilitation;

The relevance of HEATT is to highlight that minimalistion of the footprint of all application apart, do not exclude that the footprint of the whole society could be more than their sum !

Hence, with accurate decisions, current and future generations will reap the benefits.

Natural Balance Whether the use of hybrid applications in mid-transition is beneficial for climate mitigation depends on 1 factor: the ratio of emissions to CO2 uptake by both humans and nature.
  1. The levers we had in hand are:
    • At which point in a process chain can Clean Tech achieve the greatest reduction;
    • The extent of CO2 capturing at emission points;
    • The rate at which we change from f-fuels to e-fuels;
  2. The features of simulation of LCA models:
    • A breakdown could reveal the infuence of inefficiencies;
    • A sensitivity analysis quantity which sequence minimizes best;
    • A simulation assist in selecting a bottom‐up or top‐down strategie;
    • Allocating duty (to change) or subsidy (to support) has opportunity benefits;

In these very obvious step our innovation can play a crucial role.

By introducing circular gas the resilience and autonomy can enter this equation.

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§.4.2. Illustration Total optimisation is more than the sum of partial local optimisations.
Mid-transition Excercise: A (hybrid) heat-pump compared to condensation gasboilers.

From the standpoint of atmospheric CO2 concentration, we have million times:

  1. The energy consumption with a standarized comfort level:
    • The operation of a gasboiler is unfavorable unless with more combustion e-gas, biogas;
    • The operation of a heat-pump is favorable unless with direct electrical heating when delta Q is to low.
  2. The high depencency of additional emissions from lifespan:
    • Their live-spans of 30 years for a gasboiler versus max. 15 years for a heatpump;
    • Their donwstream raw-material and energy use of 70 kg versus 200 kg;
    • The transportation and installation from once to double in 30 years;
    • Maintenance frequency, spare parts, cooling fluid from seldom to annual;
    • Recycling ferro + electronica or plus cooling fluid and sealings;
  3. The capital goods in the private and public spaces:
    • Compact design of GC-boilers versus considerable require more building;
    • The promotes noise isolation for HP require heat-intensive production;
    • More traffic due to frequencies for HP: more fuel and car production;
    • Radiators for GC-boilers versus floot circuits for HP is a gain;
    • The digging for circuit in the ground and restoration of existing gardens;
  4. The second degree activities inevitable for the inflow:
    • The production of vans and trucks for technicians and spare parts;
    • Additional mining, more blast furnaces, not to electrify;
    • For extraction more excavators and pulverisers will have to be built;
    • For comfort, direct electric heating requires a heavier e-grid;
  5. The third degree adhering activities for infrastructure:
    • Demolishing of decommissioned infrastructure requires heavy machinery;
    • Rebuilding of recycling requires also a more energy than a status quo;
    • The defensive protection and recovery of infrastructure counts too.

There is no evil or good, there are only consequences! If you keep doing what you always did, you will get what you always got.

This is plea to communicate more details of the approach to this immense transition to the general public.

Thanks for including these innovations as probably one of the most sustainable and multi-purpose tools in the energy transition.

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5. Roll-playing exploration and comparison detect bias
§.5.1. To be explored Protecting the quality of holistic approaches and alternative perspectives.
Beyond simplicity Habitual assumptions or preferences can subtly affect perceptions and can interfere with ongoing preparation and research.

Written hypotheses protect against the influx of narrow narratives or amplified ambitious or symplified s tandpoints that could erode a robust decision-making process.

Lorenz's Butterflies’ - Aramith 1990 and ‘Dynamic Systems and Chaos' - Epsilon 1990).

Focus on quantifiable indicators, could overlook societal dynamics with impact on climate:
In apartment districts with compact flats, even with an adjacent forest, there is not more positivity than in rural neighborhoods and that is a cost to society and planet.

The absence of underexposed ideas can derail even well-informed decisions.

§.5.2. To be compared Preventing bias by creating conflicts with dominant expectations.
Vigilance & Divergency Communication about strategic, long-term decisions emphasizes best the disciplined approach, the broad-minded analysis, the critical reflections and the explanation and insight in simulation models.
  • Creating contrasting strategies — not just variations — is a handy tool.
    • This includes evaluating different technology and different allocations;
    • This includes evaluating different prioritization of less obvious scenarios;
    • The relevancy of harmonized assumptions and the expansion of boundaries;
    • Indirect social complications and remediation should not be discounted;
    • This comprise the benchmarking against understandable effective criteria;
    • This comprise the carefully considered objectives and calculated targets.

Doing so does not weaken a policy proposal — it strengthens its quality by revealing what it must outperform.

Scope and
factors in
comparisons
Evaluation methodology must be coherent, complete, and based on correct parameter values to meet the objectives of any proposed measure.

Beyond CO₂-emissions: Total energy budget matters:

Greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere must be reduced, but only Earth's enthalpy matters. Geothermal and nuclear energy, though low in GHG, still increase thermal load. If not radiated back into space, global warming continues — albeit at a different pace.

The European value-based policy instruments:

Sound measures deliver results by substance — not by fiscal incentives, taxation or symbolic regulation.
In climate matters there is no relative reference.

Relevant reading (should not be possible):

See: CREG: verwarmen met een warmtepomp is niet rendabel (MSN).

See: Verbod op verbrandingsmotoren in 2035 : onwettelijk ? (MSN).

A scenario does not reflect the genuine benefit if the scope was arbitrarily limited.

Historic
crossroads
Guarding, whether the most obvious or quick doable option is also the most effective, must always remain a careful reflex. Historically, this precondition was key in achieving lasting relevance or memorable success.

Panic is rarely a good advisor - yet in emergencies, immediate adequacy often outweighs systemic efficiency or the examination of disruptive alternatives.

However, if the world is to have a growing population, it is necessary to take into account the repercussions of urban design with high or low demographic density on the kinds of social dynamics, in order to anticipate the need for professional, recreational, preventive and rehabilitative services and infrastructure, and to estimate the productive and innovative capacity of the population.

Optimalisation of Nature and Humanity on one planet will entail a fundamental change.

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"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence

over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled."

Richard Feynman